As the United States gears up for the 2024 presidential election, human resources professionals are bracing for potential shifts in labor and employment laws.

When presidential administrations change, employment laws tend to shift too, as each administration brings its own priorities to bear.

Vice President Kamala Harris, if elected, is likely to push for more worker-friendly policies. She has voiced support for raising the federal minimum wage and establishing a national paid leave program. Harris may also seek to strengthen union protections and continue the Biden administration’s efforts to tighten worker classification standards.

On the other hand, former President Donald Trump, if re-elected, might focus on deregulation. During his previous term, Trump’s administration implemented more business-friendly interpretations of labor laws, such as broadening the definition of independent contractors.

Key areas to watch

Here’s a look at key employment areas to watch as the election approaches:

Minimum wage: The federal minimum wage, which has remained stagnant at $7.25 since 2009, could see a significant increase under a Harris administration. Vice President Harris has voiced support for raising the federal minimum wage to at least $15 per hour. In contrast, former President Trump has expressed concerns about the impact of such increases on businesses.
Overtime: Overtime rules, which fall under the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), are another area where we could see changes based on the election outcome. The salary threshold for overtime exemptions is a current point of contention, as a new rule issued under the Biden administration raises that threshold to $58,656 as January 1, 2025. Several legal challenges are underway, and if Trump wins, we’ll likely see that rule rolled back.
Worker classification: Recent changes to independent contractor rules under the Biden administration highlight the potential for further shifts in this area. The new rule, which went into effect in early 2024, introduces a more stringent six-factor test for determining worker status, replacing the previous five-factor approach used during the Trump administration.
Healthcare and benefits: Healthcare policy remains a contentious issue, with potential changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and employer mandates on the horizon.
Union and labor rights: The National Labor Relations Board’s (NLRB) composition and priorities could shift dramatically based on election outcomes. A Harris win would likely maintain a pro-labor majority on the Board. Conversely, a Republican victory could lead to a more pro-management majority.
Paid leave: Federal paid family and medical leave policies may be introduced or expanded under a Harris administration. Harris has supported a federal law guaranteeing paid family and medical leave for workers, and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, signed a law that provided at least 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave in his state.

Trump signed a law in 2019 providing 12 weeks of paid parental leave for federal employees. However, paid leave has not been part of his 2024 campaign platform.

Strategies and next steps

As we look ahead to November, remember that shifts in employment law tend to take time. While some changes can be implemented quickly through executive orders or agency reinterpretations, many significant reforms require legislative action or extensive rulemaking processes, which can take months or even years to fully materialize.

HR teams can engage in scenario planning as a strategic tool, developing multiple contingency plans based on various potential legislative outcomes.

Simultaneously, leadership can foster a culture of compliance within the organization. That can involve regular training, proactive compliance audits, and employee education.